Single variety, the resignation of the general manager, more than 5% of the major shareholders are dealing with the reduction for three consecutive years, construction businessmen as the head, these topics are all focused on a young pharmaceutical company —— Ellis.
But even so, it still can not stop Ellis from the IPO after the lowest price of about 15 yuan, has been rising to the latest about 60 yuan, and only in 2 years, to complete from the bottom to the present about 3 times the stock price increase.
For no reason, the third generation EGFR inhibitor voletinib sold out. It was approved in 2022,790 million yuan in 2022 and nearly 2 billion yuan in 2023.
The chart below is the sequential growth rate of its share price and sales in every quarter since the IPO. Ellis is a very typical company whose sales performance drives its share price.
The commercialization of fumetinib did not rising all the way. In 21Q3 and 21Q4, the sales declined for two consecutive quarters. In such circumstances, the stock price went down all the way to the historical low.
Then in 23Q1, the first quarter of the first-line indication insurance, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate almost stagnated, only about 1.18%.
Since then, voletinib's quarter-on-quarter growth rate has never fallen below double digits.
In the past two years, The share price has achieved the increase of three times; in the next 2 to 3 years, that is, in 2026, we proposed that Ellis may not repeat the increase in two years, but it may be 1 to 2 times in 2 to 3 years, that is, from about 60 by now to 120 to 180 by 2026.
Mainly based on its revenue and expectations in the next 2 to 3 years, there are seven reasons.
The first reason, the main domestic pharmaceutical market, always avoid policy, no relatively fair, stable business environment, give priority to with the domestic market innovation is not suitable for value investment, is better than 20 years do masks, 21 years do nucleic acid detection, 22 years do synthetic biology / cold medicine, 23 years do north exchange, 23 / 24 years do weight loss drugs.
After the double strangulation of policy and capital in recent years, the domestic policy on innovative drugs has begun to move forward in a positive direction.
For example, the local government provides subsidies, the Food and Drug Administration controls the quality, control the internal volume, the medical insurance bureau no longer soul bargaining year after year, the latest Guangzhou Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau also issued policies, urge innovative drugs to be used in hospitals and so on.
From good policy to good performance, middle need a period of time to cash, when the industry from the performance in recent years freezing point have shown obvious performance growth, capital will also return, the whole Chinese innovation medicine will enter the new rules under the second bull market, already on the table, will also become the bearer of the bull market.
The second reason, including all the following reasons, is based on the first reason, there is no stable business environment, all the following reasons are invalid.
The second reason, incremental market, is the new population, and its meaning similar, is aging, this reason has always been the most powerful core factor of China's innovative medicine cattle, but the first reason was not established, so that now no one mentioned the population.
The diagnosis and treatment market of lung cancer drugs, especially EGFR drugs, has a commercial history of 20 years in China, and it is a very mature and huge market.
The market of fumetinib is closely related to the number of people adding lung cancer in China every year.
According to the International Institute of Cancer Research (IARC), the number of new lung cancer in China was 820,000 in 2020; according to the National Cancer Center, the number of new lung cancer in China was 1.06 million in 2022 and 240,000 in 2 years.
The third reason, the stock market, is the competitors.
Once upon a time, there were dozens of domestic competitors in the three generations of EGFR, but today, only a few can truly enter the market.
At present, there are imported oxitinib (2017), domestic amitinib (2020), vitinib (2021), betitinib (2023), rheitinib (2024), ASK120067 (2021), oritinib (2021), Maivarinib (2024), and FHND9041 and RX 518 in phase 3.
At first glance, the number of words stacked appears to be many competitors, but for the third generation of EGFR drugs in the domestic market of over 10 billion yuan, especially combined with the first reason above, vetinib will not face serious competition in the next few years.
The key points are based on the first reasons above, condensed into two, review and medical insurance.
In the end for the same kind of drugs can be approved, the Food and Drug Administration has not been explicitly stipulated, but from the review time, the future, the longer the time will be longer.
The 2L therapies of ametinib, vomitinib, and reitinib were 336,449,818, and 1109 natural days, and 211,195, and 265 natural days for 1L therapy, respectively.
So those who have not yet accepted the listing application will not have a commercial impact on fumetinib for at least three years.
At present, the main battlefield of the third generation of EGFR drugs is 1L therapy, 1L therapy did not enter the medical insurance, the impact is minimal.
For example, befortinib was approved as 1L therapy in October 23 years, implemented in 24 years, 25 years; zitinib was accepted in January 24 years, approved in 25 years, 25 years, 26 years; Maivatinib was accepted in May 25 years, 26 years and implemented in 27 years.
These are inferred in a relatively ideal situation, and as for those competitors that have not yet been approved for 1L therapy, the review time may be longer than ideal.
Then the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh reasons have been shared on the planet ZS.
Statement: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
$ Ellis (SH688578) $ This article is adapted from [Gade Chemical Network], the original text: http://news.china.guidechem.com/2024/06/17/517573.html
